Market Intelligence
The unprecedented market volatility
The unprecedented market volatility seen in 2022 has really flushed out the industry to clearly show those who are energy trading experts and those who pretend to be. We know so much of the care sector have burnt fingers and are paying a heavy financial cost because of these so-called “experts”.
We are proud that Box (as a not-for-profit) has outperformed the entire commercial sector with our pre and post-invasion advice. It is for this reason we have seen substantial client additions and interest. This has allowed us to expand our team, when others are downsizing.
We are proud to have added material value to our own clients with our on-the-money trading advice. This public interview on March 1 confirms the level of advice given and the accuracy to which our predictions further came true; this is shown in our 2022 trades.
We said on March 1 in this interview: “Reconsider your appetite of further upward risk; as soon as markets allow be ready to act quickly; but don’t be surprised if many suppliers are reluctant to price, include higher risk premiums and require deposits or decline altogether.”
Our Jan-Feb 22 advice for Oct-22 & Oct-23 renewals has shown to be unbeaten.
Pre-invasion 28-Jan: -“ it suddenly looks like the energy markets have finally woken up to the threat we identified as our key concern when we discussed this year’s risks….ie the Putin threat to the norstream2 supply and which markets don’t reflect this risk…..suggest we secure now from zero to 50% and so take this exposed risk off the table.””
Pre-invasion 11-Feb: – “Tonight’s news is again reinforcing our main concerns of risk for this year. Of the 50% recently hedged, we would strongly recommend to increase this to 75%. Prices could soon look cheap if this goes pear-shaped, or it could go back to the winter highs if it escalates or the Biden/Putin rhetoric gets worse.”
Post-invasion 21-Mar: – “With today being the lowest gas point since March 1 on steady Russian gas flows (as we don’t see the present as a “red sky at night” event, we see it as a “red sky in morning”) then we see this as a buying opportunity for the final 25% exposure.”
How will energy prices affect the care home sector?
Layered season trades versus wholesale market movement
